The Biden campaign believes that six swing states will decide the 2024 presidential election, and it is targeting each one for victory this fall.
Here is a transcript of an exchange between Puck’s John Heilemann and Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon:
JH: I’ve heard people in your world talk about how 6 percent of voters in six states will decide this election. As a reminder for non-junkies: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia are the six states we’re talking about—the undeniable battleground states. We can have a discussion about whether you want to include North Carolina.
JOD: Oh, we will have that discussion.
JH: Okay, but for now, let’s focus on the notion of 6 percent in six states. Is that how you think about the universe of persuadable voters—undecided voters, up-for-grabs voters, whatever you want to call them—in 2024?
JOD: Here’s how I would approach this. We have multiple paths to victory. We can talk about the states. There are a number of people that have been with us before, who are people we see every day that the president’s fighting for, but are the exact ones who are not engaged in this race. And so they are a group of persuadable voters we need to reach to make sure that they know what’s at stake and that they’re going to vote.
[Then there are] the people who are actually on the edges and undecided, [and among them] there’s a whole new cohort that has come in since 2020, who were not available to us [then] who we saw vote in 2022, post-Dobbs. They are the same people who, in primary after primary on the Republican side, protested Donald Trump.
And I definitely think they’re gettable. Is it a small number of states in the scheme of things and a small number of voters who ultimately are on the margins? Yes. But our programs and our campaign is built for a much broader strategy to reach all of our folks and really engage them now.
The Biden Campaign Strategy Of Early Engagement
The Biden campaign has opened hundreds of field offices and hired thousands of staffers in battleground states because it is actively engaging its potential supporters earlier. A deficit that Donald Trump might not be able to make up is that he hasn’t been active in the 2024 campaign. Trump seems to believe that his voters will show up on their own, as he has turned over his operation to outside conservative groups.
The Biden campaign has already secured six states that will decide the election. While Trump wastes time campaigning in places like New York, New Jersey, and Virginia and cities like Detroit and Philadelphia, where there are precious few votes for him, Biden is building an operation in those states.
Elections aren’t won in media opinion polls. They are won on the ground through voter contact, and the Biden campaign feels confident that it will win because it is putting in the work to reach the voters who will decide the outcome of the presidential election.
