If the Trump campaign goes into total free fall, it will be partly due to the selection of JD Vance. Polling shows that Trump/Vance has under 50% support in Vance’s home state of Ohio.
Before JD Vance goes on several of the Sunday shows, keep in mind that according to The New York Times:
Others are more concerned about what they are seeing in private polling. Two private polls conducted in Ohio recently by Republican pollsters — which Mr. Trump carried in 2020 with 53 percent of the vote — showed him receiving less than 50 percent of the vote against Ms. Harris in the state, according to a person with direct knowledge of the data.
This isn’t to suggest that Ohio is definitely in play, but it would be surprising to reporters and experts in the state if Vance caused Trump to underperform there. JD Vance is unpopular in Ohio and only won his seat because Trump’s endorsement got him the Republican Senate primary nomination. Ohio’s increasingly red status, combined with the red tint of the 2022 midterm election, got Vance the victory.
However, Trump picked a running mate who underperformed the rest of the state’s Republicans in the election. Trump picked a weak running mate with the worst approval rating in polling history, and that choice, along with Harris’s surging momentum, is making Trump vulnerable in a state that should be sewn up for the Republican ticket.
If Ohio is even close in November, the wheels will have completely fallen off for Trump, which will likely mean a Democratic landslide. Trump may think that running mates don’t matter, but if the ex-president loses Ohio, JD Vance will be at least part of the reason why.
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Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
