Ever since the Democrats pulled their switcheroo with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the media has been trying to act like this was totally normal and that there is tremendous excitement for Harris.
It is not normal, and any bump Harris has gotten in support is likely nothing more than a sugar high which will fade quickly as voters are reminded of her record and her personality.
James Piereson is a political scholar and analyst for the Manhattan Institute. He recently wrote a column comparing Kamala Harris to failed 1988 presidential candidate Michael Dukakis, but one of the most fascinating parts of the column is a passage where he predicts the outcome of the 2024 election.
Piereson writes at The New Criterion (bolding added for emphasis):
Kamala Harris is now enjoying this kind of moment as she racks up endorsements in anticipation of the Democratic National Convention in August. Democrats and media allies are busy portraying her as a fresh face (she is not) and a youthful candidate (also doubtful) who will electrify the nation, galvanize women and minority voters, and trounce Donald Trump in the fall campaign…
The honeymoon will not last very long. Trump will succeed in painting Harris as an out-of-touch San Francisco leftist, much as Bush portrayed Dukakis as a Massachusetts liberal. Trump will find plenty of running room with that campaign, as there is hardly a left-wing cause that she has not embraced…
Notwithstanding the euphoria today, Trump will win the election by six points—forty-nine to forty-three percent—winning 339 electoral votes, including all of the so-called swing states, plus the Democratic-leaning states of Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. Republicans will pick up three or four seats in the Senate and perhaps twenty seats in the House, giving them safe majorities in both chambers. This will give Trump the margins he needs to implement a good piece of his agenda in 2025 and 2026.
This column is currently one of the most read articles on Real Clear Politics and for good reasons. Piereson makes some outstanding points based on history and research.
