The new election forecast from liberal poll analyst Nate Silver is full of good news for Trump that must have Democrats terrified.
Silver has no incentive to publish a forecast that looks good for Trump. He gets nothing but grief from the left for doing it, so you know it’s genuine.
We still have weeks to go and anything can change, but this is looking very good for Trump right now.
Breitbart News reports:
Nate Silver Forecast Has Chance of Trump Winning at 61.5%, Harris at 38.3%
Statistician Nate Silver on Friday released his latest 2024 presidential election forecast, which shows former President Donald Trump at 61.5 percent and Vice President Kamala Harris at 38.3 percent.
The rise in Trump’s chances of 15.4 percent is a flip from Silver’s forecast on August 23, when Harris’s chances of winning were at 53.5 percent and Trump’s at 46.1 percent. Those numbers came right after the Democratic National Convention, when the vice president was still enjoying a mainstream media honeymoon.
Take a look at the breakdown of the numbers below:
#Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
August 23
Harris: 53.5%
Trump: 46.1%September 6
Trump: 61.5%
Harris: 38.3%
——
Swing States: chance of winningPennsylvania – Trump 62-38%
Michigan – Trump 52-48%
Wisconsin – Trump 52-48%
Arizona – … pic.twitter.com/2JqxjoAr5O— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 6, 2024
Nate Silver has nothing to gain and everything to lose if his model bombs. He’s not doing this for clicks and clout.
That should terrify Harris backers. https://t.co/bDiftO9nik
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) September 6, 2024
Silver commented on Twitter/X today:
One of the reasons I’m not super sympathetic to complaints about the convention bounce stuff is that Harris is in fact on the decline in polls over the past couple of weeks in most of the key swing states.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 6, 2024
And there’s more. Here’s what the Electoral College map (no toss-ups) looks like, according to Silver’s analysis.
LATEST NO-TOSSUP MAP from Nate Silver’s electoral college model predicts a sizeable Trump victory…
Trump: 312
Harris: 226Silver Bulletin / Sept. 6 pic.twitter.com/qOGujoK1gW
— @amuse (@amuse) September 7, 2024
Of course, Republicans and Trump voters cannot take anything for granted, but this is a sign that things are headed in the right direction.
