A new poll from Arizona found that Kamala Harris holds a 44%-41% lead over Donald Trump in the critical swing state.
AZ Highground wrote about their poll:
In the race for President, the survey revealed that Harris is starting with a slim lead – earning 44.4% of the vote compared to 41.6% of likely voters casting their support for Trump. The 2.8 point lead is within the survey’s margin of error. Harris’ lead is bolstered by 86.5% of the Democratic base, whereas Trump is earning 79.5% of the Republican base, a slippage that was also witnessed by other MAGA candidates in Arizona in 2022. Essential independent and unaffiliated voters are also initially breaking by about 7.2 points for Harris.
Harris earns support from a majority of female voters (51% Harris/36% Trump) while Trump holds a ten point lead among male voters (37.2% Harris/47.7% Trump). Harris is earning significant support among younger voters, while Trump’s largest strong hold is among voters ages 50-64. Both candidates are split evenly among Arizona’s incredibly important 65 and older demographic.
In the Senate race, Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake by 11 points (rounded up: 50%-39%).
Arizona has been a target for Trump in the general election. The state is one of the main reasons that he has been hammering away at immigration and the border as his top issue.
Trump needs Arizona. Harris has multiple paths to the White House open to her. She can go through the Sunbelt by winning Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia along with one of Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania, or she can win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If Trump loses Arizona, he would have to win both Georgia and Pennsylvania to hit 270 Electoral College votes.
It is a good sign for Democrats that the Harris momentum is starting to show up in critical swing state polls like Arizona.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
