New polling shows that Vice President Kamala Harris has now put the Sub Belt in play, which gives her multiple paths to the White House.
The New York Times reported on their latest NYT/Sienna College poll:
Ms. Harris is now leading Mr. Trump among likely voters in Arizona, 50 percent to 45 percent, and has even edged ahead of Mr. Trump in North Carolina — a state Mr. Trump won four years ago — while narrowing his lead significantly in Georgia and Nevada.
Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris are tied at 48 percent across an average of the four Sun Belt states in surveys conducted Aug. 8 to 15.
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In the new surveys, Mr. Trump is ahead in Georgia 50 percent to 46 percent, and, in Nevada, he has 48 percent compared to 47 percent for Ms. Harris. She has 49 percent of likely voters to Mr. Trump’s 47 percent in North Carolina, the only one of the seven core battleground states that he carried in 2020.
Harris can get to the White House by winning the Sun Belt or the Rust Belt, and there is also a third path where he wins by winning different combinations of states in the Sun Belt and the Rust Belt.
Whatever strength that Trump once had in the polling is completely gone.
Trump’s path to the White House has narrowed. The ex-president would have to win at least four of the remaining swing states. He needs to win at least four of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. If Trump loses two of those five states, Harris wins the election.
Currently in polling, Harris has measurable leads in three of the states Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and is tied or slightly leading in North Carolina.
None of the leads are big enough yet to declare that Harris is on the road to victory, but she has more paths to get there, and this trajectory represents a narrowing of opportunity for Donald Trump.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
