If Trump thought Biden stepping aside would help him in Pennsylvania, he was wrong as Kamala Harris has tied the ex-president in the Keystone State and Gov. Josh Shapiro is wildly popular.
The state of the race is similar to where it was in April, when Biden and Trump were tied 48-48%. The survey, released Friday, shows Harris and Trump locked in a tie at 49-49% — barely different from what the final election results were in 2020 (49.85% Biden vs. 48.69% Trump).
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The expanded ballot shows Harris with a 2-point edge: 45% Harris, 43% Trump, 7% Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West with 1% each. Third parties hurt Trump here as 10% of his two-way supporters go for someone else compared to 7% of Harris’ supporters.
Voters are split on Harris’ favorable rating: 49-49%. Still, views of her are better than Biden (41% favorable, 57% unfavorable) or Trump (46-53%).
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Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is widely considered to be on Harris’ shortlist of potential running mates, receives a 61% favorable rating — the highest of any individual tested. His rating has improved by 10 points since July 2022 when he was campaigning for governor.
Shapiro also beats Trump in a head-to-head matchup 54%-44%, and among voters who don’t like either candidate, Kamala Harris leads by 41 points, which is 14 points better than Joe Biden’s performance with this group in Pennsylvania.
There has been a lot of speculation about who Harris should pick as her running mate to balance the ticket. The reality is that picking Mark Kelly, Roy Cooper, or anyone else won’t hand Harris an Electoral College vote rich swing state like picking Josh Shapiro would.
The Trump campaign is worried that Harris will pick Shapiro and shut them out of Pennsylvania. If Pennsylvania is off the table for Trump, the ex-president would have to virtually run the table with the other swing states to win the White House. The Harris team is reportedly done with background checks and has moved into the political vetting part of the process.
The Fox News poll reveals that Donald Trump was not helped in Pennsylvania by Biden leaving the race, and he could lose the state if Kamala Harris adds Gov. Josh Shapiro to the ticket.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
